Today we go through the match-ups in all four divisions as we hit the win or go home stage of the season.
We’ll have coverage of two playoff games this weekend;
Brandon Bojarksy and Colin O’Neil will be in Bow on Saturday for a Division II quarterfinal match-up when the 3rd-seeded Falcons take on the 6-seed Hanover Bears.
Pete Tarrier and Shannon Hargreaves will be at Windham high school for a Division I first-round showdown when the Jaguars take on the Bedford Bulldogs.
We’ll have all the highlights plus the post-game interview/celebration with the entire winning team.
Our preview is brought to you by our longtime partners at Great Bay Community College who will be hosting an open house on their Portsmouth campus on Saturday from 9 to 11 a.m.
Division I
(9) Portsmouth-Oyster River at (8) Merrimack
Portsmouth Oyster-River Team Page
The first meeting of the season between Kip Jackson and Brian Pafford's teams.
The fact that the Clippercats gave up 48 points two weeks ago to one of the best teams in Maine obscured a detail that was right in front of us all the way back to early September, and that is the fact that this has been an excellent defensive team all season.
Gunner Jackson, Cole McLaughlin, Brady Kilroy, and Peyton Robinson make up a very strong linebacking group for a defense that only gave up an average of seven points per game to in-state teams since their opening night loss to Exeter.
The issue for Portsmouth-Oyster River has been its offense and a tendency to turn the ball over.
Merrimack's Kip Jackson has become known for his spread-you-out on-offense approach, but in their biggest win of the season last Friday night against Bedford, it was all about beating the guy in front of you and dominating time of possession.
Reimello Hyde, who has been outstanding all season, rushed for 270 yards on a whopping 46 carries, meaning the Tomahawks will keep feeding Hyde until they wear Portsmouth-Oyster River down.
The keys in this game come down to whether Merrimack can control the clock and put a Clipper Cats offense that tends to struggle in bad field position to start drives.
Pafford's team has to take care of the football. Expect a low-scoring game; in those battles, one turnover can be the difference between moving on and going home.
The pick: Merrimack in a close one. I'd be going with the Clippers if this game was on the seacoast.
(12) Dover at (5) Bishop Guertin
When you look at this match-up (the two teams did not meet in the regular season), you can see the scoreboard being lit up for four quarters. Two elite quarterbacks and enough weapons to lead them up and down the field all night against one another.
What I see, though, is a tough match-up for the Green Wave.
Dover quarterback Ryder Aubin threw for 1,415 yards, good for second place in the state (by one yard). He has receivers like Brett Davis, Bryce Carberry, and Brady McInnis, who have come through for him in big moments, and a head coach in Eric Cumba who can draw up an offense with the best of them.
Bishop Guertin though has two strengths that could give Dover issues; 1) they have one of the best secondary’s in the state, led by Matt Santosuosso and Cody Szymansky, and 2) this is the kind of ball control offense that has given them fits all season.
Expect the Cardinals to control the game with runs by Santosuosso and Ethan Labbe to go along with short passes that move both the clock and the chains.
The pick: Bishop Guertin. Dover needs to win a shootout to move on, but I don't see the BG defense allowing that to happen.
(13) Spaulding at (4) Pinkerton Academy
It’s been a considerable turnaround for Kevin Hebert and the Red Raiders, which should provide a lot of enthusiasm and momentum for the program in the future.
Brian O’Reilly’s Astros have been one of the best teams in the state annually for the last fifteen years, and they’ll be big favorites again this weekend. Caden Michaud was a significant loss on both sides of the ball, but Jacob Albert (220 yards rushing against Concord) and Cole Yennaco (five touchdowns against the Crimson Tide) still give them one of the best running back combos in the state.
Emmett Colby returned at running back for Spaulding last week after battling an ankle injury. Can he and Hunter Trueman move the ball against a big/physical Astros defensive line?
Expect Spaulding to have some success with their ground game. Their more significant issue will come on the other side of the ball.
Spaulding has lost five in a row and given up an average of 26 points in those games. Turning that around in Derry against the Astros will be a big challenge.
The pick: The Astros rushing attack will prove too much for Spaulding.
(11) Concord at (6) Timberlane
The Owls needed only to beat Portsmouth-Oyster River on the road to earn the 3-seed and a bye, but a 14-7 loss dropped them to the 6-seed.
How they ended up behind an Exeter team they finished tied with and beat head to head is a question they’ll be asking in Plaistow for some time.
The cure for Kevin Fitzgerald’s team…beat Concord this weekend and face off with the Blue Hawks again next weekend.
To do that, they will have to contain Division I’s rushing champ Elia Bahuma (1,559 yards rushing) and dynamic playmaker Divon Duncan, who rushed for 497 yards this season and led the Tide with 275 yards receiving.
The question regarding Jim Corkum’s team isn’t whether their offense can win it for you late. They indeed can. The question is can the defense get a stop when they absolutely have to?
Timberlane running back Eddie DiGiulio and quarterback Dominic Coppeta combined for over 1,000 rushing yards this season, and in Matt Williams, Jayden Mwangi, DiGiulio, and Trey Baker, there are enough weapons at wide receiver to convert on 3rd and long.
This feels like the kind of game where the team with the ball last wins.
My pick: In the end, I’m going with Concord. Look for the big play ability of Duncan and Bahuma on special teams to be the difference.
(10) Bedford at (7) Windham
Windham wants to establish the running game and have quarterback Josh Sweeney take the occasional shot down the field.
Bedford wants to establish the running game and have quarterback Danny Black take the occasional shot down the field.
Jack Bryne’s Jaguars come into this one with an impressive resume; they went to the wire on opening weekend with Pinkerton before losing (Box score: Pinkerton 28, Windham 27) and led top seed Londonderry 14-10 on the road before losing 30-14.
They beat Concord in a game they needed to have to secure a home playoff game, and they feature one of the best running backs in the state in Tiger An (Player profile page).
The Bulldogs feature Black behind center (1,169 passing yards), one of the premier tight ends in the state in Cal McAuliffe, and will spread the carries amongst a deep group of backs that includes Logan Sfeir (364 yards rushing), Colby Snow (302) and Leger Russell (246).
Like Portsmouth-Oyster River, this is a very underrated defense led by Parker Bromley, Kevin Sheridan, Evan Cibotti, and McAuliffe.
The pick: The analytical side of me goes with Windham, but I have a gut feeling about this game….so I’m going with the Bulldogs in a very close one.
Division II
(8) St Thomas at (1) Gilford-Belmont
Box score of the regular season meeting
The Golden Eagles and the Saints meet again one week after the top seed beat St Thomas 34-7 in Dover.
There was some tension after the game, with the feeling from St Thomas being that Gilford-Belmont kept throwing the ball looking for points late after the game had already been decided, so expect both sides to be appropriately motivated on Saturday.
Golden Eagles head coach Josh Marzahl has done an excellent job managing the health and workload of junior player of the year candidate Isaiah Reese, who threw for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns and rushed for 1,204 and 20 scores in the regular season.
Reese has not played defense very often, and Marzahl has made sure to put him in running situations where he can get out of bounds and avoid unnecessary hits.
Logan Grant has had a breakout year at wide receiver, leading all of Division II with 511 yards. He, along with running back Michael Kitto (629 yards on the season), make this one of the more explosive offensive teams in the division.
Michael Macaione has been terrific on the offensive line and has done his best Aaron Donald impersonation on defense.
St Thomas lost four of their last five games of the season but has enough to give Gilford-Belmont a problem on Saturday. Michael Skowron finished the season with 489 yards passing and has developed a good connection with talented wide receiver Devon Paquette, who was far and away the Saints leading receiver with 404 yards.
The Saints will look to keep Reese off the field by running the ball with Aidan Gorman (372 yards rushing), Timmy Avery (258), and Skowron (202). They’ll take their shots downfield to Paquette and try to keep this game close.
The pressure will mount if the top seed hasn’t put the Saints away by mid-way through the fourth. Head coach Ed McDonough, who does a terrific job, hopes to achieve that to shift the pressure on the undefeated Golden Eagles.
The pick: For the game to be close and then two long Isaiah Reese scores later…Gilford-Belmont will be moving on.
(5) Kennett at (4) Souhegan
Can the Kennett ground attack, led by Sean Carrier and Evan Koroski, control the tempo of this game and lead the Eagles to a big upset on the road?
Make no mistake; it would be a big upset. Five seeds vs. four seeds rarely are, and Kennett is a very good football team, but I have yet to talk to a coach who doesn't think the Sabers aren't the second-best team in the division behind Pelham.
For Scott Stearns' team, he has done an excellent job in his first season as head coach; Kennett has to use the Pelham formula; pound the football, be the more physical team, and don't allow the Sabers to pull off the forty and fifty-yard big plays this team has become known for.
Kennett also has to apply pressure to Sabers all-state quarterback Romy Jain. When Jain is pressured, you can force him out of the pocket and disrupt the rhythm of the receiver routes. When you leave him back there to play pitch & catch like it's seven on sevens in July….. you're in very big trouble.
Souhegan will use all their weapons; JJ Bright (680 yards rushing and 164), Madux McGrath (369 yards receiving and five touchdowns), Charlie Maroun (358 receiving), Carson Behn, Cole Manning, and Connor Cassidy, to try and jump out on the Eagles quickly.
Kennett has an offense built for playing with a lead, not making up a two-touchdown deficit.
My pick: The speed of the Sabers, especially on their turf field, should prove to be the difference. I like Robin Bowkett's team to move on.
(6) Hanover at (3) Bow
Sam Cavallaro’s Bears (why did we get rid of Marauders? Has that been properly explained?) have had a unique regular season. Do you realize their 27-16 win over Manchester West in Week 7 was their closest game of the season?
Hanover’s average margin in their wins during the regular season was 32.1 points.
Their average margin in their three losses was 28.3 per game.
The blowout wins are more about the bottom teams in the West conference, while their margin of defeat has a lot to do with injuries.
Hanover was hanging with Souhegan on the road (in a game we covered) before quarterback Roger Lucas went down with what appeared to be a serious neck injury. Thankfully it was not, but it certainly affected the team, as you would expect.
In last week’s loss to Pelham, leading rusher Jeff Vidou (1,224 rushing yards on the season) and David Frechette both missed the game but are expected back on Saturday.
Did that change the outcome of any of their three losses? I do not think so, but they are more dangerous this weekend than they appear if you are strictly going by the results.
Bow has turned into the power-running game/physical defensive team that we have come to expect from this program. A program that has been amongst the best in the state over the last fifteen years.
Hanover has to play to a draw in the trenches, or the Falcons are going to control the clock running the ball with Ryan Lover (1,014 and over one thousand for a second straight season), Hollis Jones (835), Logan Gordon (460) and quarterback Owen Walton.
Cavallaro will try and get big plays set up for Vidou, as a ball control type of football game favors a deeper Bow team.
The pick: Bow pulls away in the second half and wins by two scores.
(7) Plymouth at (2) Pelham
Tom Babaian's Pythons are the consensus favorites and earned that with a 28-21 win at Souhegan in Week 8 in a game we covered.
Pete made a good point on our Sunday podcast when he talked about how Pelham was a senior-laden veteran team. Where some of the contenders in this division rely on underclassman Pelham is a senior dominant team, and as legendary Merrimack basketball coach Tim Goodridge used to say, 'When you get to the playoffs, you win with seniors.'
The running game has been terrific, and it has been a balanced attack, as Babaian has spread the carries amongst Ethan Demmons (553 yards rushing), Alex Carroll (402 and 5 touchdowns), quarterback Jake Travis (340 and 9 TDs), Dom Herrling (229) and William Nicholls (215).
Travis can and will take shots down the field and is accurate enough to move the chains on 3rd down. Jake Cawthron has been his biggest and best target, with 10 catches for 235 yards.
The defense has been every bit as dominant.
Aidan Lynch, Demmons, Memphis Patterson, Cawthron, Connor Travis, and Derek Muise lead a unit that has to contain Bobcats all-state running back Dylan Welch, who finished second in rushing yards in the division with 1,297 and 15 touchdowns.
Welch's rushing touchdowns were the third most in the division behind only Isaiah Reese (20) and Jeffrey Vidou (17).
Chris Sanborn is as good a coach as there is in the state, and he has a terrific staff backing him up, but do the Bobcats have the manpower to pull off the upset?
The pick: The Pythons should put away Plymouth and move on to next weekend's semifinal.
Division III
(4) Inter-Lakes Moultonborough at (1) Trinity
Inter Lakes-Moultonborough Team Page
Rob Cathcart's team is the only unbeaten team in the division and the big favorite heading into Saturday's semifinals.
Quarterback Jack Service has been outstanding all season. We knew Service could run the football, but he has improved a great deal as a passer, often hooking up with the best receiver in the division, all-state standout Devohn Ellis.
Cathcart has done an excellent job splitting carries amongst Service, Paul Thibault, and Bobby Kinsella. Trinity has averaged 43 points a game, and when opponents needed a stop, they couldn't get it.
There is a growing sentiment that this won't be as easy for them as Pelham made it look last season. Campbell hung with Trinity (in Manchester) for four quarters in a game we covered. In addition, last Friday night Stevens had the ball late with a chance to cut the Pioneers lead down to a one-score game.
Can the Lakers, who lost to Trinity 35-0 back in Week 2, pull off what would be a major upset?
The pick: Trinity gets back to the title game with their second win over the Lakers.
(3) Campbell at (2) Monadnock
Box score of the regular season meeting
Glen Costello is one of the best coaches in Division III, so it's never been difficult for him to pinpoint his team's areas of weakness and where the focus should be in practice.
That being said, when one player rushes for 400 yards against you, you don't forget it.
So you can expect Monadnock all-state running back Jack Lorenz to have Campbell players identifying everything from where he is on the field to the color of the Gatorade he's drinking on the sidelines come Saturday afternoon.
Lorenz has missed the last two games but is hopeful of returning this weekend. In his absence, Monadnock rolled to easy victories over Epping-Newmarket and Kingswood behind running backs Ethan Jarvis (543 yards rushing on the season) and Ethan Brown (1,109).
Both have been very good, but can the Huskies beat Campbell without Lorenz, who is not only Rob Lotito's best runner but his best defensive player?
Kaden Smith has played better by the week at quarterback, while Ben Dean gives the Huskies a talented tight end who becomes very popular on 3rd down and in the red zone.
Campbell has their own elite back in sophomore Scott Hershberger, who led all of Division III in rushing with 1,650 yards… or nearly one mile…on the season.
Jackson Kanaley (320 yards rushing) is primarily a runner at quarterback but has an all-state level target down in the field in Jack Kidwell, who led the Cougars with 184 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The only thing more shocking than the 52-8 final score from the first meeting would be if it happened again.
Expect a close game and keep a close eye on the health of Lorenz, who should get strong consideration for player of the year and the CHaD roster after the season.
The pick: I'm going with Monadnock in Swanzey, but I've covered enough of these playoff games to know it could go either way.
Division IV
(4) Raymond at (1) Somersworth
The pros for the Raymond Rams are that they have one of the best passers in the division, talented quarterback Trey Donahue.
The cons are that the Somersworth secondary, led by safety Jeff DeKorne, is the best in the division.
DeKorne does a terrific job communicating where everyone needs to be, is an excellent tackler, and in Kaden Bickford, and Tayshawn Sheppard, has two elite cover corners playing beside him.
That kind of coverage on the defense's back end allows linebacker like Calvin Lambert and defensive end Dante Guillory to attack at the line of scrimmage.
The results have been an average margin of victory of 46-5.
Offensively Lambert (903 yards rushing) and Tayshawn Sheppard (642) have been dominant in limited snaps.
DeKorne does not throw often but has a good deep threat in Dante Guillory when he does.
Raymond will have to play their best game of the season and then some to pull of a major upset this weekend.
Tona McCarthy's team has been led by the all-state performance of Donahue along with running back Joey Harper, wide receivers Dennis Glidden and Logen Brien.
Defensively the Rams have gotten major contributions from DL/OL Haden Robinson and LB/OL Ian Whitman.
Somersworth played with a chip on their should last season, after an opening weekend loss at Newport, and carried it to a title game win over Fall Mountain a year ago.
They are now two wins away from going back to back in Division IV.
The pick: The Hilltoppers have too much firepower for the Rams.
(3) Bishop Brady at (2) Newport
It’s been an impressive season for John Proper’s Tigers, who lost leading rusher Karter Pollari to a shoulder injury in the preseason.
Tyler Gobin picked up the workload to the tune of a Division IV-leading 1,156 yards, and quarterback Kyle Ashley has served as a dangerous dual-threat quarterback while moonlighting as maybe the best defensive end in the division.
The Tigers overpower most teams with their running game but have added a deep threat in all-state receiver Kayden LaClair, who hauled in 12 receptions for a division-leading 379 yards this season.
Eight of those twelve receptions went for touchdowns, giving Newport the ability to take shots down the field when teams stack the box against Ashley, Gobin, and Eric Wilkinson (294 yards rushing).
They’ll square off with Brendan Johnson’s Bishop Brady Giants, who they beat back in Week 5 36-13.
Quarterback Todd Sheppard has shown the ability to move the ball down the field through the air and is joined by running back Josh Genchos, tight end Cade Weaver and wide receiver Chris Grimblas.
Brady has to stop the run if they are going to hang in this one. Defensive tackle Brayden Murphy and linebacker Tucker Townsend are part of a defense that needs to keep Newport out of the endzone and their offense in the game.
The pick: I can’t see anything stopping a Newport/Somersworth rematch next weekend for the title.
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