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The Kevin Shaw at Roche Realty Division III Semifinal Scouting Report

By Lance Legere, 02/21/24, 6:15AM EST

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The top-seeded Saints get Kearsarge in the Final Four

 We return with one of our favorite articles of the year, the semifinal scouting report. 

 The coaches are the ones who help put this together, giving us some of the best insight we get on these four teams since they are the ones scouting and game-planning for them all season long.

 We had three coaches breakdown both matchups and all four teams using blind quotes.

 Brought to you by our friend and partner Kevin Shaw at Roche Realty!

 

Division III Bracket and Box Scores

Gold Level Coaches/Programs: Kevin Giannino of St. Thomas Aquinas, Ed Tenney of Kearsarge, Scott Currier of Gilford, Don Picard of Berlin, and Mike Mahoney of Hopkinton

(4) Kearsarge vs. (1) St. Thomas 

 We asked the coaches to break down both teams and the matchup, starting with the fourth seeded Cougars. 

 The size both teams have was a key talking point for all three coaches.

 "This will be a matchup of two of the best interior players in Division III with Tessa Marinello and Emilie von der Linden."

 "Marinello has been on a tear down the stretch and very few defensive schemes have provided much friction," said another coach. "The Saints will be able to match size with size but how much help, if any, they provide could be the key."

 Marinello will attract a lot of attention, but the shooting this group possess, especially what we saw in the first round, will be something to watch for.

 "The Saints will be able to match size with size but how much help, if any, they provide could be the key. It may be unwise for St. Thomas to gamble off of Ava Shapiro or Jada Kendrigan too often as they both have the ability to get hot and make you pay from deep."

 "I expect Ava Shapiro to have a great game for Kearsarge. She is a high motor kid who loves to play and that is evident whenever she hits the floor. With all the attention that Marinello will get, and justifiably so, Shapiro will have opportunities to make a big impact on both ends of the floor," said one coach.

 "Ava Shapiro and company will need to take care of the basketball.  Once they get into the quarter court, if Kearsarge can get 2-3 ball reversals, they may find some open looks," said another coach.

 "St. Thomas forces you to take shots early in your offense.  Kearsarge limiting turnovers and playing patiently on offense could go a long way to getting the upset."

 The Cougars have had their fair share of battles throughout the regular season, and that difficult schedule may work to their advantage tonight. 

 "Kearsarge's schedule makes them ready for pressure," said one coach. 

 "Kearsarge has the advantage of playing a tougher schedule, there were not many nights they didn’t have to battle a playoff-caliber team, and that should serve them well," said another coach.

 "They have had to find different ways to win games, either by focusing on putting the ball down low or through movement and shooting. The advantage of playing so many close games against good competition will be an advantage for them."

 What impact will the Kearsarge defense have?

 "Kearsarge plays a stout man-to-man defense. They choose their matchups and work through screens, no switch. They may elect to faceguard your best scorer with Shapiro. This is not a team that is going to show zone or that looks to press but they make you earn every look in the halfcourt. Genna Bolduc and Emma Toriello will be facing their toughest matchups of the season."

 "Marinello and Adara Boucher are no slouch of a combination as they have size, a grittiness, and a nose for the ball."

 "I would not be surprised to see Coach Tenney throw a new wrinkle into the game plan that makes it difficult for St. Thomas. He works really hard to take away your best player, so how St Thomas manages that is huge."

 What does the Cougar offense need to bring tonight?

 "I think a big key will be how well does Kearsarge handle the St. Thomas press. St Thomas came out in their diamond and one look against White Mountains and put that game out of reach early as it also negated White Mountains size. Marinello will be much better in the open floor as an option to break the press, but a lot of the pressure and emphasis will be on the Kearsarge guard play," said one coach. 

 "Tessa Marinello is a more important scorer for her team than Emilie von der Linden is to hers. If the Saints can keep Tessa in check, Jada Kendrigan, Ava Shapio and Ociee Ilg will most likely need to be in double digits for the Cougars to win."

 Now we will move onto the top-seeded Saints.

 "St. Thomas had a clear size advantage all-season long, but their biggest strength was getting consistent scoring from multiple players."

 " I really think that Genna Bolduc is the most compete player in our division.  She can shoot the three, take you off the dribble with either hand for a pull up jumper, or take it to the rim," said one coach 

 "She has size and length and is a menace on the defensive end of the floor. Bolduc can go off at any point in the game."

 "Toriello plays with tremendous poise for a sophomore.  She simply doesn't get rattled on the court.  Great basketball instincts, always in the right place. Toriello can shoot it, drive and score, or drive and set up her teammates." 

 Offensively, Toriello, Bolduc, and von der Linden were focal points all season long, how can that continue tonight?

 "I am impressed with St. Thomas' fast break. They have shooters sprinting to corners, their bigs will fill the lane for easy layups if you don't sprint back.  The pure number of shooters  that  the Saints have can stretch any defense and create an open lane for von der Linden."

 "Emma Toriello will be key for St. Thomas to win and this might be the most impactful matchup. In my mind Boucher and Marinello will balance von der Linden and Bolduc, but Toriello is going to have to find ways to be impactful, especially on the offensive end, against Shapiro who is a really good defender. That matchup could be the difference," said another coach.

 Depth plays in the favor of the Saints as well. 

 "St. Thomas had a clear size advantage all-season long, but their biggest strength was getting consistent scoring from multiple players." 

 "Kearsarge will probably only go seven to eight deep while St. Thomas will play 10. Fresh legs and fouls could be something to watch if the game stays close late," said another coach." 

 The defense of St. Thomas will be a factor in this game.

 " von der Linden allows St. Thomas to get out and pressure whether full court or in the half court.  Their guards can get after the ball and wings jump passing lanes with the comfort of 6'2" protecting the paint," said one coach.

 "The length on the second level of pressure with Bolduc and Amelia Anderson make the court feel small, and passing lanes have very little room for error." 

 So, who wins tonight? 

 "St. Thomas is my pick. They are playing their best basketball and have talent and depth."

 "I like Kearsarge in this one. I think they are tough kids who are well prepared."

 "I foresee a bit of a feeling out process early in this one, but the battle-tested Cougars should advance."

 

(3) Winnisquam vs. (2) Hopkinton

 We asked the coaches to break down both teams and the matchup, starting with the third seeded Bears.

 "The Winnisquam-Hopkinton matchup is an interesting one as both programs experienced a season marred by injuries. Both jumped out to strong starts and were cruising until some key absences derailed their rhythm and rotations." 

"For Winnisquam, it all starts with Lauren MacDonald and is she able to impose her will on the game. She plays with such force that she can be difficult to guard and has developed ways to score at all three levels," said another coach. 

 "The most explosive player on the court will be wearing a Winnisquam jersey. This game will be determined by how many opportunities McDonald will have to impose herself on the Hopkinton defense."

 "Kearsarge and Fall Mountain employed two different junk defenses at the Bears with similar successes of limiting touches and aggressiveness of the all-state forward. Even if the Hawks elect to play straight up with Shaylee Murdough, it's imperative that McDonald not defer as much on offense and for the Bears to find ways to keep her involved early and often even if being denied when off the ball."

 Defensively MacDonald can have an impact on this game as well. 

 "Winnisquam is a big, strong, physical team who primarily plays a 2-3 zone.  They are big enough to allow MacDonald to play at the top of the zone, and typically take care of the defensive rebounds with their bottom three defenders," said one coach. 

 "MacDonald can leak out, and with long outlet passes, she gets the ball in the open floor in transition, where she finishes as well as anyone in Division III." 

 "In some games this year when they were playing a team with a really talented big, like Kearsarge, they put MacDonald down low in their 2-3 zone. Against other teams that had more guard play, MacDonald was at one of the guard spots defensively," said another coach.

 "Winnisquam likes to press in a 2-2-1 off of makes. They have caught plenty of teams with this but I don’t see the Hawks falling victim in this matchup. The Bears extend their 2-3 zone and are pretty aggressive up top."

 Offensively, what can the Bears turn to?

 "McDonald’s ability to draw fouls may have the biggest impact on the game. The Hawks need the trio of Murdough, Lizz Holmes and Sydney Westover to stay out of foul trouble all game," said one coach.  

 "Caidyn Carter will need to help carry the scoring load. She needs to shoot the three with confidence."

 "I think Vanessa Powers could be the X-factor. She is a hard-nosed player that is built for playoff basketball."

 "MacDonald and Caidyn Carter have to play well for Winnisquam to win as most of the offense will flow through them," said another coach.

 "I think the key for Winnisquam is who is going to be that third player who scores on Wednesday night or makes plays for them? Bella Sargent would be an example of someone you might see step up and make a play in a big moment that will push Winnisquam in the right direction."

 Now, what about the Hopkinton Hawks is intriguing in this matchup? 

 "For Hopkinton, Shaylee Murdough is the key piece that drives Hopkinton’s success. She gets them into their sets, can hit big shots, and defends at a high level."

 "Shaylee will have to bring it on both ends in this one. If she is tasked with guarding McDonald, she will have to do so without picking up fouls."

 "What I am curious about is how Winnisquam matches up with and guards Sydney Westover.  Hopkinton is a challenge because you have to guard both Murdough and Westover, so it will be interesting to see what Winnisquam prioritizes and tries to take away," said another coach.

 Offensively, what is the plan for Hopkinton? 

 "Hopkinton will need to find the openings in the Bears zone and create scoring opportunities.  I would anticipate Hopkinton pressuring when Winnisquam gets a defensive rebound to eliminate long outlet passes." 

 "Hopkinton has not always been the most potent offense in the half court, they often rely on points off turnovers and transition points. Winnisquam is an athletic team who can be tough to run on, and if they take care of the ball, it will force the Hawks to score playing five on five," said another coach.

 "If healthy, then I would say that Hopkinton has the advantage because they have multiple players who can score and they can score in different ways."

 "I see the Hawks guards handling the Winnisquam 2-3 zone and envision Westover and Holmes having a field day working out of the high post." 

 "Hopkinton runs some nice zone offense. Holmes and Westover finish well around the rim and both are active on the offensive glass," said one coach.

 Defensively, what advantage does Hopkinton have?

 "Hopkinton will need to box out all five Winnisquam players, as the Bears attack the offensive glass unlike most teams.  That said, if Hopkinton can limit Winnisquam to one-and-done, they will have fast break opportunities."

 "Hopkinton will probably match Liz Holmes or Murdough with MacDonald and leave the other defender to take away Caitlyn Carter," said another coach.

 "Murdough and Westover are the two main players that have to play well for Hopkinton to win. And similarly who is that third person who makes plays for them?"

 "I think if Holmes is guarding MacDonald then that is a huge opportunity to make an impact on the game without ever scoring a single basket."

 "The Hawks have proven to be the toughest team to break down defensively and they hit the glass as well as anybody. They have a lock-down defender in Murdough, a disruptive zone press and plenty of length and athleticism to alter any plans you may have in the halfcourt," said one coach. 

 So, who wins tonight?

 "I have Hopkinton winning this one by boxing out and taking care of business on the defensive boards. They will score in transition.  Over the course of 32 minutes, Winnisquam may struggle to keep pace with Hopkinton." 

 "I am going to take Hopkinton. They seem to be getting healthy again at the right time, are really smart players, and have some experience in this setting so the moment won’t be too big." 

 "Hopkinton has the ability to win this game in more ways than Winnisquam can. As the game progresses, I see a patient Hawks team breaking down the Winnisquam zone. McDonald gives you a puncher's chance, but I see Hopkinton pulling away in this one."

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