For the past sixteen seasons, we have examined each division at the midway point, and today, we break down Division II.
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The teams I could see winning the championship in March: Pembroke Academy, Pelham, Merrimack Valley, and Hanover.
The four-team list could grow to eight in the next few weeks, but I've settled on four today.
Again, I could see these teams winning the title, not just getting there.
The quarterfinals are going to be a dog fight to get to the semifinals, and it would not surprise me to see two top-four seeds go down in the round of eight.
Mike Donnell's Pembroke Spartans have two valuable strengths: their balance across the lineup and their tournament experience.
This is a program that has advanced to back-to-back final fours and can count on three or four players to reach double digits in scoring in a big playoff game.
Evan Berkeley (12.9 ppg) leads the way and does all the little things often not found in a box score that helps you win games. Devin Riel (12.8) is a tough kid who is not afraid to take the shot with the game on the line, and Andrew Fitzgerald (13.1) may be the best scorer on the team.
Javien Sinclair gives them rebounding and rim protection, while Donnell can go eight or nine deep with his rotation.
There is work to be done in securing a top-four seed, with two games each against Bow and Merrimack Valley still on the schedule, plus tough games against Souhegan, Milford, and Coe Brown, but the Spartans look like a good bet to be there in the end again.
The Pelham Python team today bears no resemblance to the team that began the season with a fifteen-point loss to Hanover and a sixteen-point loss to Hollis-Brookline.
When I covered their first game after the holiday break, head coach Joe Morin told me he thought they had found an identity against teams from Massachusetts and Division I defending champion Pinkerton in their holiday tournament.
He was right. Brady Hegan is as valuable as any player in the division, Brady O'Conner is evolving as a big-time shooter/scorer, Justin Bowlan is getting comfortable running the offense, and players like Luke Estell, Shawn Bodenrader, and David Lindell have stepped into more significant roles and are gaining confidence by the week.
If they can get a top-four seed, I'm not betting against them getting back to the final four. They protect their home floor as well as any team in the state.
How would Hanover adjust to the loss of coach of the year Ben Davis and all-state performers Ryan McLaughlin (a member of our 2024 NHsportspage underclassmen team) and power forward Jaysen Oriol?
Just fine.
First-year head coach Denver Greene was a valuable assistant coach on last year's runner-up team and has done a terrific job instilling the same defensive principles in a group that had to replace three starters.
Beckett Sobel has gone from a guard off the bench who averaged 1.2 ppg. last season, to an all-state point guard, Wyatt Daigle (11.6) and Roy Lucas (11.6), who may be the most underrated guard in the division, have also thrived in expanded roles.
Add to that David Frechette, who might be the best defensive player in the division, and you have the pieces in place for another run.
Merrimack Valley is the most unproven team of the four, but Kelly O'Brien is doing a terrific job in year one as head coach, and players like Aiden Gray and Nick Oglesby are kids you want to go to battle with.
Like Pembroke, this team's strength is its balance across the lineup/rotation. Ethan Dukette (15.0), Brady Smith, Thatcher Stearn, and Boston Bradicich have all been very good this season, and the fact that you can't focus on stopping one guy makes them tough to defend.
I've been doing this too long to count Coe Brown out. Their issue is that they need more scoring from their backcourt, but they have a team capable of a final-four run and beyond.
Grant Hayes and Ryan Kouchoukus are more than capable of big playoff games and head coach David Smith knows a thing or two about winning in the post-season.
Manchester West has been a great story under Rich Otis this season, featuring three all-state guards. Will their lack of size and experience count against them in the post-season?
Oyster River is a different and lesser team without all-state guard Matt Jernigan (21.0). They'll have a month to get themselves ready for a run, and we will see them when they travel to Northwood in a few weeks to take on Coe Brown.
Other questions at the mid-way point:
Can Sanborn defend and rebound enough to support one of the best offenses in the division?
Can Bow round into form offensively?
Is Hollis-Brookline still a year away from title contention, or are they ready now?
Can Souhegan and Milford score enough to each make a run?
The dark horse team that could make a run: Oyster River
Brendan Kirby (Three and D Guy) and Matt Jernigan give Zach Lewis's team two crunch-time scorers, and in Jernigan, a player teams may have to send multiple defenders at.
Owen Jacques has played well in an expanded role, and this group still hasn't peaked.
Once March rolls around, they are capable of two or even three wins.
The lower seed that could pull a 14 over a 3 or 13 over 4 level tournament upset: Milford
This one was easy, it's Milford.
No one is going to pump their fist and say, 'Cool, we got Milford in the first round!' because Leo Gershgorin's team will make you work for every basket.
The Spartans have allowed 26.3 points per game in their last three games and held Merrimack Valley to a season-low 53 in a three-point loss.
They're going to be a tough out in March.
Mid-Season First Team All-State
Matt Jernigan of Oyster River
Brady Hegan of Pelham
Tevin Edmunds of Manchester West
Evan Berkeley of Pembroke Academy
Jake Reardon of Bow
Second Team
Beckett Sobel of Hanover
Devin Riel of Pembroke Academy
Dylan Rego of Sanborn
Chase Frizzell of Sanborn
Weston Hickman of Souhegan
(Aiden Gray is on this list if he had played more than five games)
Mid-Season Player of the Year: TBD...no one has separated themselves yet.
Mid-Season Coach of the Year: Ryan Kelley of Hollis Brookline
Tag(s): Home Article Archives Boys Basketball NHIAA Division II Bow Coe-Brown Hanover Hollis-Brookline