For the past sixteen seasons, we have examined each division at the midway point, and today, we break down Division I.
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The teams I could see winning the championship in March: Keene, Portsmouth, Bedford, Trinity and Nashua South.
Let's start by emphasizing the same point made in the preview in December.
This division is WIDE OPEN, and let's analyze the two teams at the top of the standings as an example.
Tonight, 9-1, Keene will host 10-1 Portsmouth. I wouldn't argue back if you told me these are the two best teams in the state today. These are two terrific teams led by all-state talent and two excellent coaches.
They also are about 40 seconds away from being 6-4 and 7-4.
Keene has won two double overtime games over Merrimack and Nashua South and erased a six-point deficit in the final 90 seconds to win at Pinkerton.
Portsmouth needed an Isiash Reis jumper to get to overtime Tuesday night against Nashua North, beat Alvirne when their last-second attempt missed, and beat Manchester Memorial in overtime.
These wins say a lot about both teams: their character, ability to execute in late-game situations, and confidence that they will find a way to win.
It also illustrates the parity in this division and how fine a line is from the top seed to the tenth seed.
Bishop Guertin is 5-6 on the season. The Cardinals either led or were tied in the fourth quarter in five of those six losses.
Dover is 3-7 but has lost three games by only ten points combined.
That's how narrow the line is.
Keene has all the ingredients of a championship team: three all-state players, Javon Massiah (19.0), Fitch Hennessy, and Jamal Stanley, and the kind of chemistry that comes from playing together since grade school.
Portsmouth has the coaching (John Mulvey), the point guard play (Isaiah Reis), the glue guy (Ryan Swartz), and the late-game closers (Derek Swartz and Reis) to win it all.
Bedford lacks only big-game experience, but the Logan O'Connell (19.9)/ Landon Ellsmore (14.7) backcourt is elite, and their ability to beat you with full court pressure, out on the perimeter, and in the paint is rare.
Wiji Dak (11.7) and Connor O'Rourke (21 points Tuesday night in a win over Windham) can pound you in the paint, O'Rourke with his length and Dak with his speed and quickness.
That makes Frank Moreno's team as versatile as anyone in the division.
Trinity is as big a threat today as it was when it was ranked #1 in the preview, even after losing two of their last three games.
Shawn O'Neil (16.8), Jordan Torres (14.0), and Jamar Alleyne are a three-headed monster in the backcourt, and when Collin Charbeneau scores ten points or more, they are 5-0.
The book on Trinity is that you have to be strong with the ball, anticipate the double team/trap, and pound them on the glass and in the paint.
Look for Alvirne to slow the pace with their zone defense tonight.
Nashua South has been even better than anticipated. Nate Mazerolle is doing a terrific job, and Josh Caruso (a division-leading 26.5 ppg) has been outstanding, but he is not winning games without a lot of help.
Josh Tripp has played in all eleven games after battling injuries the past two seasons and has emerged as one of the best forwards in the division.
Daniel Karavanic is one of the most improved players on the team and came up huge with a 29-point effort in a win over defending champion Pinkerton.
Meanwhile Fransisco Rodriguez Malagon and Linc Vanderhorst have played very well in expanded roles.
Exeter is right in the mix behind Nate McNeff (19.6) and has been a much better team since the return of forward Nik Greco, who has averaged 17 points per game in his three games since returning from injury.
If Winnacunnet improves to 8-3 with a win at Exeter tonight, they belong in the conversation.
Alvirne, Londonderry, Manchester Memorial, Merrimack, and Goffstown can all win two playoff games. I just don't see any of them being the last team standings.
I may be wrong.
We'll find out in March.
The dark horse team that could make a run: Pinkerton Academy
Another tough pick where there are several good candidates. I'll go with the champs because they have size, speed, shooting, and two players (Brady Sullivan and Josh Phanor) who can go for twenty-five in a playoff game.
Add to that a championship-winning coach in Mike Dunham and a point guard in Parker Bienvenue-Cernuda, who has already been through the playoff grind twice, and the pieces are there.
The lower seed that could pull a 14 over a 3 or 13 over 4 level tournament upset: Bishop Guertin
It is an easy pick, as the Cardinals are playing everyone tough and feature the all-state duo of Connor McGowan (4th in Division I at 21.5 ppg) and forward Eli Youssef (14.0).
Guards Matt Chau and Luca Fabrizo are getting better by the week, and their win at Trinity proved that with the right matchup, they could pull a first-round upset in March.
Mid-Season First Team All-State
Josh Caruso of Nashua South
Mason Paquette of Londonderry
Javon Massiah of Keene
Nate McNeff of Exeter
Isaiah Reis of Portsmouth
Second Team
Marcel Rose of Spaulding
Derek Swartz of Portsmouth
Jack Koutrobis of Windham
Logan O'Connell of Bedford
Shawn O'Neil of Trinity
(Note: There are easily eight other players who could be on this list, there is that much talent)
Mid-Season Player of the Year: Josh Caruso
Mid-Season Coach of the Year: John Mulvey of Portsmouth
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