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The Sentinel Title Services Thursday Thoughts

By Dave Haley, 10/31/13, 9:00PM EDT

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Could Merrimack Valley still miss the playoffs?

Division I Manchester Central (6-2) at Bedford (7-1) The coverage of Manchester Central is sponsored by 900 Degrees Pizzaria
 

The coverage of Bedford is sponsored by Bedford Dental Care assoc. and HK Photography

 Winner here is going to Concord next week.

 For Central this do or die game comes at the right time as they have forged an identity in the last month after starting the season 0-2. For Bedford it is a necessary evil after losing to Concord two weeks ago.

 Bedford features the best rush defense in the state and that is a case they have stated pretty clearly since week one. In that game Pinkerton’s Manny Latimore went over 100 yards rushing (133 yards on 20 carries), but no running back has duplicated that effort in the seven weeks since. So we don't need to bring in Nate Silver or Bill Barnwell to break this game down to its core and tell us all what we already know, it’s very simple; if the Bulldogs hold Jesiah Wade to less than 100 yards rushing Bedford is winning the football game. Bank on that.

 The Little Green have watched Wade learn a new system and gel with his teammates as September turned into October and it’s a formula that has seen them roll off six straight wins. If the Bedford defense led by Eric Glassman contains Wade it is going to force Ryan Ray’s team to try and win by throwing the football. Concord was able to do just that behind Robbie Law but that is a team comfortable depending on wide receivers like Seimou Smith and Jacob Szulc.

 Can Central win a game with someone other than Wade carrying the load? I’m not sure they want to find out.

 Pete Tarrier and The Great Jon Kesty will have full coverage in our 900 Degrees Pizzaria Game of the Week.
 
Spaulding (5-3) at Dover (2-6)

 Welcome to Dover football’s Bowl game. After what has been a disappointing 2-6 season a lot of pain and frustration can be alleviated by knocking your arch-rival out of the playoffs and this weekend the Green Wave get that shot.

 Dover has proven to be just good enough to hang around this season and that isn’t going to get it done against a Fighting McIsaac’s team with decisive wins over both Winnacunnet and Exeter. Defensively the Green Wave have to find a way to get off the field as Spaulding’s Trey Scott and Tyler Snow are the 2013 version of the Pony Express (Google it..). Dover can score behind quarterback Derek Stegman (1,157 passing yards and 6 touchdowns) and Cam Rewucki (over 800 total yards); the concern lies with a defense that has given up over 30 points in all but two games this season. If they cannot get Spaulding off the field there will be no juice left for fourth quarter heroics. For one game they need to be the defense they had hoped they’d become back in August because after Friday night its basketball season, win or lose.
 
Division II
Merrimack Valley (7-1) at Plymouth Regional (7-1)

 The Merrimack Valley players didn’t shy away from calling last weekend’s match-up with St. Thomas the biggest football game in school history and they then went out & backed it up with a dominating performance that puts them in good position for a spot in the playoffs next weekend. They’ll close the regular season traveling to what many New Hampshire high school football fans consider to be sacred ground and in the Bobcats they will face the most physical and precise team they have faced all season. Plymouth is going to beat you on the ground running the football and Collin Sullivan going back to throw more than 6 times would be like Peyton Manning throwing it 100 times in a game. They’ll run through the tackles and finish their blocks & tackles. Simple but effective.

 What Merrimack Valley needs to avoid is quick possessions. In a loss earlier this season to Portsmouth the Pride fell behind early and had to abandon any hope of establishing Tucker Burt and their running game. You can’t have two minute/three and out possessions at a high rate against Plymouth because they are built to wear you down over the course of the game. Ivan Niyamugabo has been excellent all season long but his accuracy has to be his greatest currency on Saturday afternoon. Merrimack Valley has to keep the Plymouth defense on the field and keep the time of possession game close. The Bobcats are not going to turn it over very often and so Merrimack Valley has to be just as protective of the ball when they have possession of it.
 
Division III
Campbell (5-2) at Bow (6-1)

 Winner could travel to Pelham next weekend as head to head won’t be the ultimate tie-breaker. Campbell has a lot of points to make up on Bow and only one weekend to do it and that may cost them a playoff spot.

 That’s a shame because these are two of the top four teams in Division III, but it’s a situation that has been staring us all in the face for over a month and so someone is taking that hit on Saturday. The Falcons are coming off a thrilling overtime win over Somersworth (a team one person associated with Bow raved about in terms of their ability and coaching staff) that eliminated the Hilltoppers from the playoff race. They’ll have to do it again against a Campbell team that is licking its wounds after a blowout loss to Pelham at home on senior night. It’s not a lot of fun hugging mom & dad at mid-field and then getting beaten up afterwards. Campbell will have little time to feel bad for themselves about what happened last week.

 The Falcons follow the same formula as Pelham; pound the ball behind a good offensive line and limit the time of possession of the opposing offense. Matt Ehrenberg has made a late push for Division III player of the year (872 yards rushing, 83 receiving and 15 total touchdowns) but he has had help in turning a Bow team that was shutout in week one into a premier offense. Kyle Barrington, Alex Reitze, Chris Robbins and quarterback Derek Polish have all carried the load at one time or another and their mission Saturday is to wear Campbell down over the course of four quarters.

 Campbell ran into the same problem last Friday night that Merrimack Valley did earlier in the season against Portsmouth; faced with a big deficit early in the game they became too one dimensional in throwing the football. Christian McKenna became a human piñata for a very good defense to take shots at and the results were an ineffective offense. As good as Kyle Manning and Cody Alward have been catching the football McKenna needs to see production from the running game to keep the defense honest. That has not been Campbell’s strength as McKenna is by far their leading rusher.

 That is a nice weapon to have but it also exposes your best offensive player to a lot of hits. The balance in their offense Saturday will go a long ways towards determining if they are a playoff team when the post-season begins next week.
 
Newport (5-2) at Mascoma (5-2)

 A regular season game between two contenders where we are absolutely certain the winner gets into the post-season?? Are we sure?? You have to travel to West Canaan to see it??? I can live with that…

 Yes an honest to goodness play in game where head to head match-ups mean something (Rant alert..Look away if you can’t handle it; you do realize Merrimack Valley and Campbell could beat St. Thomas and Bow head to head respectively..finish with the exact same record in the same sub-division…and still lose out on a playoff spot to them right? This makes sense on what planet?) between two teams that deserve to play football into mid-November.
 Newport lost to Stevens 9-6 last weekend but proved that their defense was legit, this week they’ll need more than 6 points to get past a Mascoma offense featuring Kyle Kosiorek and Shane Pierce.

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