We kick off our 20 games in 21 days coverage with a look at Division IV where 15 teams have advanced to the tournament.

 I want to personally thank each and every one of you for being supporters of the work done by Jen, Pete, Jon, Justin, Eliot & I. We bring you all of our coverage while working full-time jobs.

 Thank you so much for supporting the work we do for the kids of our home state.

 

 The first thing we do when we get our NCAA brackets is pick the 12 seed over the 5 and the 14 seed you could see pulling off a major upset on opening weekend.

 The truth is it rarely happens in high school basketball. In baseball & softball, you could be a 15 seed with one unbelievable pitcher that makes you, on that one day, the best team in the division.

 The weaknesses are more difficult to hide on a basketball floor, especially when you only play seven or eight players. We talk upsets but by the time we are at UNH, Southern New Hampshire University or Plymouth State we’re usually watching four of the top five seeds warming up.

 Division’s I, II & III seem full of upset potential but Division IV has been top heavy all year. Does that continue into the post-season? And who are the teams outside the top 5 who could crash the party?

 Let’s take a look.

 I’m adding a new feature to this year’s previews (in each division); I’ll give the chances of an upset with each game.

 

 Division IV

 

1. Derryfield School   gets a first-round bye

 

Derryfield Team Page

 

 

(9) Sunapee at (8) Profile

 The Lakers are the 9 seed based on two Division III wins over Newport (4-14).

 For anyone complaining that it isn’t fair to be able to leap-frog three other 10-8 teams because of wins against one of the worst teams in Division III you need to remember the Lakers were getting two losses a year (when Sunapee was a final four team) when Newport was a top 4 team in Division III so…it’s a local rivalry that has cost them in the past.

 It helped them quite a bit this year.

 The Lakers only win over a plus .500 team was over a 10-8 Hinsdale team and they come into the post-season after losses to Pittsfield (84-54) and Wilton-Lyndeborough (55-49). They’re a relatively young team that should be in the mix the next couple of years and they have been led by Cade Robinson, Sean Shisko, Zach Belisle and Brady Grzanna.

 Justin Stroup’s Patriots come in having lost four of their last seven games. The Patriots only win over a plus .500 team was against 10-8 Moultonborough in late January. Stroup has Profile pushing the ball and extending pressure in his first year, more than they did a year ago under former longtime head coach Paul Greenlaw.

 The results are the Patriots have scored more points than they did a year ago but they’ve also struggled at times with shot selection with all the newfound freedom offensively.

 Profile wasn’t able to make a dent in the Littleton/Woodsville/Groveton power structure and that’s disappointing for a team with 6 of their top 7 players back from last season’s #9 seed. River Baker has had an all-state season while Cam Hoyt, Dylan Laleme, Dylan Robie and Jordan Brusseau have been very solid.

 The Patriots will mix up defenses and push the basketball, using their depth off the bench to try and control the pace.

Upset forecast: There is no upset between 8 & 9…but I expect the home team to win

 

(13) Farmington at (4) Woodsville

 Woodsville Team Page

 Adam Thurston’s team put a scare into Derryfield on the road three weeks ago; can they do that and more at Woodsville tomorrow night?

 Farmington has talent and Thurston does a really nice job but the Tigers have had a lot of trouble putting 32 minutes together against good teams. Woodsville is a good team, and a win here would take 32 minutes of solid execution.

 Krys Demers and Logan Ebare will have to be major factors; outside on the perimeter for Demers and on the glass for Ebare. Woodsville doesn't have a lot of height after center Cooper Davidson and if you get him in early foul trouble you have a chance to stay in this one on the road. Farmington’s best road win of the year came over Wilton-Lyndeborough (6-12), so a win at the 4 seed would have to take their best game of the season, and then some.

 The book on Garrett Olsen (19.1) is not to let him get free in the open court, where he is as good any player in the division.  Jamie Walker’s team can spread you out with shooters like Corey Bemis, Connor Maccini, Brendan Walker and Billy Green.

 Keeping Cooper Davidson on the floor (and out of foul trouble) is the key, not only in Round 1 tomorrow night but if Woodsville is going to advance to their 3rd straight Final Four.

Upset forecast: Low…Farmington is dangerous …but Woodsville rarely loses at home on one of the best home courts in the state.

 

(12) Hinsdale at (5) Newmarket

Newmarket Team Page

Hinsdale Team Page

 After a six-game winning streak, Hinsdale has lost four of their last five games to close the regular season. Carl Anderson’s team has the pieces; a veteran point guard in Caleb Steever (13.1 ppg.), size in Ryan Boggio (12.2) and enough experience to not be intimidated on the road. The issue is who they are facing tomorrow night.

 This is a Newmarket group that has not made it to Plymouth. They have seniors at key positions, a player of the year candidate in Anthony Senesombath (21.3), size all over the floor with Craig Hounam, Jared Woodman (who I have a feeling is going to win them a game on the boards along the way..), Simon Cote (a  6’2 point guard) and Travis Moseley. There is no team bigger across the board than Jamie Hayes’ group and that negates one of Hinsdale’s strengths.

 Will Chase gives them production and smarts off the bench (you can tell Hayes trusts him...) while Noah Pardy gives this team a strong  8-man rotation.

 Hinsdale has to slow this game down and win it in the 40’s. They have pressured the ball at times this year but if you give Senesombath the open floor he is going decide how many points he wants on the night.

Upset forecast: Very low…Newmarket is days away from a showdown up north.

 

(15) Wilton-Lyndeborough at (2) Pittsfield

Pittsfield Team Page

 Wilton-Lyndeborough has some good young talent and to make the tournament in a rebuilding year is a very good accomplishment for the program.

 A season-ending victory over Sunapee earned a very young team, led by guard Jake Lavert, the chance to play in the tournament tomorrow night.

 Pittsfield is poised for a run to Plymouth, a match-up with Epping or Mount Royal looms but it is hard to see any chance they don’t advance. We’ll break them down in the next round.

 Upset forecast: About the same as snow in Phoenix

 

 (10) Epping at (7) Mount Royal

 Mount Royal Team Page

 Epping Team Page

 This is the rare tournament game where the lower seeded team is the favorite. That takes nothing away from Mount Royal, who makes the tournament under head coach John Normandin for a second straight year and earns the home game after a 12-6 regular season.

 Mount Royal goes to the beat of their best two players; brothers Alex (18.3) and Andrew (16.7). they’ll play zone and try to limit Epping to a single shot per possession.

  This Epping team reminds me a lot of last year’s Portsmouth Christian team, a lower seed that upset Pittsfield in the first round. Both teams played close games against Top 5 seeds but rarely were able to win those games.

 On Tuesday night Epping needs to focus their defense on the Normandin brothers and try to force a lot of turnovers with their pressure. Mount Royal will struggle in an up-tempo game against Epping and it’s athletes, that’s exactly where Epping head coach Nick Fiset wants to take this game.

 Hunter Bullock (16.6) is one of the best guards in the division and when Doug Nadeau (14.1) is knocking down jumpers it opens up the paint for sophomore Peyton Rivers (9.6) and forward Jake Bisaillon (10.1).

 Nick Fiset’s team will test Mount Royal’s defenders by trying to see if they can stay in front of them, whether it is man to man or more likely a zone. The Achilles heel of this Blue Devil team has been their rebounding, so keeping Alex Normandin off the glass will be a key.

Upset forecast: High alert

 

(14) Lisbon at (3) Littleton

 Littleton Team Page

 America's Team Home Page

 Let’s break this down…………how does Lisbon upset Littleton?

 First of all, they’re going to need a Superman level performance out of player of the year candidate Josh Woods. The good news is the senior 1,000 point scorer who finished second in Division IV scoring at 25.1 ppg. is more than capable. Littleton’s pressure allows Woods to get out & go and once he gets to the rim there isn’t a shot blocker to stop him.

 Parker Briggs (17.2) has been Trevor Howard’s best outside shooter all season long but he has been out with a knee injury that he suffered in a collision against Groveton. Briggs may play, but if he does he is not going to be 100%. Meaning Lisbon needs to run him off the three-point line and force him to take the ball off the dribble, bad knee and all.

 Jacob Deem is Lisbon’s second-best rebounder (Woods is their best…..well just go down the line…he’s that good)  and tomorrow night he needs to make it his mission to collect more rebounds than Danny Kubkowski, who happens to be one of the best rebounders in Division IV.

 Deem can’t keep pace with Kubkowski (20.6) as a scorer but he is a very good athlete (an all-state goalie in soccer). Littleton is not going to kill you on the glass as a team; Kubkowski is going to kill you off the glass himself. Deem needs to make it his mission to prevent this.

 Lisbon nearly pulled the upset in their first meeting with the Crusaders back in December (Box Score) but was run off the floor in the rematch in Lisbon. Trevor Howard does not lose first round games, but Woods has the potential to be the best player on the floor and he is a senior, who only gets one more crack at Littleton, a team he has never beaten.

 It will take a career night to pull off the upset but if Lisbon’s zone can frustrate Littleton and Briggs struggles in his return to the lineup…Lisbon can hang in this one long enough to put a scare into the Crusaders.

 Upset forecast: “So you’re saying there is a chance…..”  Lloyd Christmas     Aspen, France.

 

 (11) Moultonborough at (6) Groveton

 Groveton Team Page

 These two teams split their regular season match-ups and the uncertainty over Matt Mason (15.9 ppg) being able to play after a bad ankle injury in the season finale makes this another potential upset special.

 Matt Swedberg’s Panthers were the most schizophrenic team in Division IV this season. How else do you explain losing to Littleton by 34 and then beating them by 19 in the season finale? Or a 65-50 loss to Lin-Wood that was confusing in the moment and absolutely baffling today?

 The Panthers have two assets that could get them not only past the defending champs in Round 1 but all the way to Plymouth; 1) Reese Swedberg, and the all-state resume that comes with him, and Joey McClay, who if he gets hot from the outside, makes this a very tough team to contend with and 2) their head coach.

 Swedberg is still one of the best coaches in the division, having won two championships as a head coach, and when he knows he has a group capable of a run he gets the most out of his teams.

 In recent years Moultonborough has been out of the conversation but with his son playing his final games for the Panthers and the ability to beat Top 5 teams (as they proved against Littleton) expect Swedberg to focus his defense on Austin Lesperance (17.1 ppg) tomorrow night.

 The likely hood that Mason won’t play makes this a game where Josh Wheelock (10.9 ppg) is going to need to step up and score.

 Mark Collins’ team has not forced turnovers at the rate they have in the past, this is not a great defensive team, and they miss Daegan Perras out in front of their press. They’ll have to try and force the pace and try to get to the rim before the 6’6 Swedberg does.

 Upset forecast: Very strong…..if Mason can’t go Moultonborough is even money to get out of the North Country with a win.

  

 Coming Wednesday: Division III