We continue our 20 games in 21 days coverage with a look at Division III where 16 teams have advanced to the tournament….down from 37 in 2014.

 Fine, I think it was 22…but the doing-away of the play-in games was the single best thing to happen to the division in five years unless you long for the days of games between 6-12 teams.

 With the past three championship teams all off to Division II, we are crowning a new champion in two weeks.

 If there have been favorites to be the last team standings along the way there has never been a clear-cut team to beat.

 Today we will take a look at all eight first-round match-ups and I’ll give you the chances of an upset in each contest.

 We will be out at two games on Thursday night:

 Jennifer Chick-Ruth and I will be back at the Alma mater when Gilford takes on last year’s Division III runner-ups Stevens.

 Meanwhile, Pete Tarrier and Devin Poslusny will be at Inter-Lakes when the Lakers take on Joe Minson and the Monadnock Huskies in the 8 vs 9 game.

 

 I want to personally thank each and every one of you for being supporters of the work done by Jen, Pete, Jon, Justin, Eliot & I. We bring you all of our coverage while working full-time jobs.

 Thank you so much for supporting the work we do for the kids of our home state.

 

 Division III

 

(16) Mascoma at (1) Hopkinton

 The Royals keep their tournament streak alive after beating out Winnisquam for the final spot in the tournament field. Dakota Decocq led the Royals in scoring while Killian Dowd & Connor Thompson contributed to the cause.

 Jim Barry is one of the best coaches in Division III; this is a team that might not have won more than two games without his ability to get the most out of the group. He does a terrific job year in and year out but lately, they have not had many all-state players other than Alex Schwarz, our co-player of the year in the division last season. It’s been a struggle for a program that once won two titles in three years but Barry has done a terrific job keeping the Royals in the conversation. There are few coaches more respected by his peers.

 Hopkinton is a deserving #1 seed. They have size, athletes and head coach Steve Signor does a nice job with this group. We’ll break them down in the next round because….

 Upset forecast: Slim & none and Slim went on……oh you know the line…

 

(9) Monadnock  at (8) Inter-Lakes

Monadnock Team Page

Inter-Lakes Team Page

 The 8/9 games by design are usually among the most compelling games of the first round but this one has additional layers that make it a very intriguing match-up.

 These two teams met in the very same round a year ago with Inter-Lakes as the 4 seed (led by Zach Swanson) and Monadnock the 13 seed. Jim Hill’s Huskies led that game throughout before the Lakers made a huge comeback in the final three minutes to pull out a win and avoid the first round upset.

 This is a Monadnock team with a good mix of senior leadership and youth. Hill starts two freshmen and they both will play major roles tomorrow night. Jake Kidney is a tough guard who defends at a high level and can finish in the lane. Quinn Grover (8.8) has the size to close out on shooters on the perimeter and to block shots at the rim.

 He will work alongside center Tim Santaw (8 ppg) to try to make it a long night for sophomore all-state forward Eli Swanson (22.2), the second-leading scorer in the division.

 Santaw is very physical, so Swanson is going to have to be ready for that. Lakers head coach Mike Rathgeber runs some nice sets against man to man so expect him to get looks for Swanson, Davis Jollimore (11.1) and Eli Dupigny.

 The book on Inter-Lakes is to pressure the ball because they do not have a pure point guard. Monadnock has two defenders capable of doing that in Zack Morrell and Kidney.

 The Lakers are going to go zone on their small floor and try to make Joe Minson (21.8) feel like he is operating in a phone booth. The advantage of coming to Meredith a year ago is that Hill and his team understands the dimensions of the floor at Inter-Lakes. They’ll look to pound the glass and get out & score in transition against the Lakers.

 Upset forecast: This is a case where the 9 seed is the favorite over the 8 seed….can the home court be the difference?

 

(13) White Mountains at (4) Conant

White Mountains Team Page

Conant Team Page

 The last time these two teams were in the same gym they were playing separate games in the 2010 final four at SNHU.

 Mike Curtis’ Spartans arrive back in the tournament behind the performances of center Zeke Pribbernow (15.2), Griffin Crane (13.5) and point guard Jack Curtis (10.6). The Spartans will mix up their zone looks with their 1-3-1 being their best. Pribbernow is a legit shot-blocker who can give the Orioles trouble with his length (I owe Jay Bilas a quarter).

 Eric Saucier’s team is not going to mix up defenses, they will play straight man to man and it’s a defense they pride themselves on. Conant doesn’t have the size that White Mountains does so they will try and disrupt everything they run in the half court while at times extending that pressure to full or three-quarter court.

 Saucier goes about as deep into his bench this time of year as Jim Mulvey does at Portsmouth, which is to say one or two players max. An ankle injury to Ryan Smith will tax that rotation even more, as even if he plays he will not be at 100%. That’s the strain that will be put on the defense,

 Offensively sophomore Peyton Springfield has been absolutely terrific in averaging 22.1 points per game. Curtis’ team is going to have to communicate his whereabouts at all times while  Anthony Gauthier has done a nice job at the point and Jake Drew (13.1) has had an all-state season for Saucier.

Upset forecast: Not in Jaffrey….nope.

 

(12) St Thomas at (5) Campbell

 Campbell Team Page

 St Thomas Team Page

 This game became the popular upset pick as soon as we announced it on our Bracketology Show on Saturday.

 One reason was the respect people and coaches have for the all-state duo of Drew Cavanaugh (18.1 ppg.) and Shawn DeKorne (14.5). Cavanaugh is a tough match-up for most teams with his size and ability to finish against contact while DeKorne is an elite athlete who makes plays on both ends of the floor.

 Another reason was Campbell, a very talented group that can look like two completely different teams night to night. Third-year head coach Sudi Lett believes in getting his athletes out in space and allowing them the freedom to shoot it when they’re open. Campbell doesn’t scout very much and they hardly seem to worry what the other team is running, they play their style and if the shots are falling, they are as dangerous as any team in the division.

 They also will give up a lot of points and if you can control the pace against them, not easy because they will pressure you full court, you can frustrate them to the point where they’ll start forcing shots.

 Can St Thomas hang in this game long enough to do that on the road?

 Saints head coach Sean Murphy will have to watch for the quick 8-0 bursts and be sure to call timeouts before the momentum of the game gets away from his team. St Thomas is capable of winning this game but they are also capable of getting buried early.

 The first quarter in this one will tell us a lot..

 Upset forecast: Strong chance of an upset……

 

 (15) Fall Mountain at (2) Somersworth

 Somersworth Team Page

 It’s been impressive how consistent this Hilltoppers team has been all year long. Their only losses coming to Gilford and Berlin (a team they split with).

 Credit goes to Tyler Clark, Bryton Early and a group that has bought into what head coach Rob Fauci has been preaching. There have been less outside distractions and this group deserves credit for that.

 Building on their final four run from a year ago they have been as good as any team in the division and on Thursday night their road back is a lot easier than it was a year ago when J.P Record and Conant came in for Round 1 (a game we covered).

 Fall Mountain won only one game all year against a team with a winning record (10-8 Stevens), making the prospect of going to 16-2 Somersworth and winning a very tall task.

 Upset forecast: Same as snow in Phoenix…wait I used that one already with D4…snow in Death Valley.

 

(10) Belmont at (7) Mascenic Regional

 Belmont Team Page

 Mascenic Team Page

 Really good match-up and one that could go either way

 

 Mascenic wants a shoot-out and with sophomore Sammy Stauffeneker (20.0 ppg.) they have the crew to win a game at that pace. The Vikings are not a very good man to man defensive team, as they struggle to keep ball handlers in front of them, but Jay Starr will mix up his half-court traps to try to cause turnovers and easy buckets.

 That means Red Raiders point guard Griffin Embree is going to have to play well at the point, and freshman Nate Sottack off the bench as well. Belmont isn’t a big team, but that won’t be a factor against Mascenic.

 Zack Barthel can score on the block for Mascenic and TJ Hiott & Jake Zina can extend possessions on the offensive glass. Belmont head coach Jim Cilley is going to need a good effort on the glass from Aidan Rupp (an all-glue guy team member this year…welcome to the club) and Dylan Gansert, who hasn’t always produced on the glass.

 Belmont also needs a good performance out of Matty Pluskis (16.8) but not a super-human one. When Pluskis plays in rhythm and goes to the flow of the offense he is very good.

 When he forces shots it tends to throw their offense off. Belmont will play some match-up zone and Cilley will throw a few wrinkles at them with the knowledge that although Mascenic has plenty of players capable of finishing at the rim only Stauffeneker is going to hurt them from the outside.

 Upset forecast: Cloudy with a chance of upset….

 

(14) Laconia at (3) Berlin

 Laconia Team Page

 Berlin Team Page

 Steve McDonough and the Sachems will move up to Division II after the season and there are a lot nicer ways to be sent off than a trip up to Berlin in the first round.

 The Mountaineers beat Laconia 76-50 earlier in the season, in a game that was never in doubt. This is a veteran Berlin team that returns all five starters from a quarterfinal team of a year ago and it has been championship or bust since Day 1 for Evan Arsenault, Seth Balderrama, Joey Fodor, Michael Moore, Sinciere Davis & Company.

 Laconia belongs in Division III where they can compete with Lakes Region rivals like Gilford and Belmont, but the committee is sending them up along with Sanborn; who can't compete in Division II and Stevens, who will compete in Division II.

 Ryan Chandler is the Sachems best scorer but an injury likely keeps him out of this one. This is a  team with young talent but it hasn’t all come together yet if it does it will have to come at the next level.

 Upset forecast: Highly, highly unlikely…..highly

 

(11) Stevens at (6) Gilford

Gilford Team Page

Stevens Team Page

 Stevens will travel to Gilford to try and knock off the alma mater with an almost entirely new crew from their finals appearance a year ago.

 Head coach Matt Baird-Torney’s team is led by Drew Grenier (10.8), Luke Come (11.4) and a solid group that includes Tanner Durkee, Derrick Stanhope, and Damon Roy. A group I had fun covering during football season.

 The Cardinals tournament resume would get hammered by Joe Lunardi; their best wins are over Division II Con Val (5-11), Fall Mountain and Mascoma.

 Their record against plus .500 teams was 0-7, including a loss to Gilford back in December.

 The Golden Eagles want to pound the ball down low to Greg Madore & Adrian Siravo, while not allowing Stevens dribble penetration from the perimeter.

 Winner here likely heads to Berlin Saturday night….where we may just join them

 Upset forecast: A near certainty….expect Stevens to roll as they look to advance to a second straight final four.

 

 That’s my version of a reverse-jinx….