Today we take a look at the five first-round games in Division II as we head into the best two weeks of the high school basketball season.

 I want to personally thank each and every one of you for being supporters of the work done by Jen, Pete, Jon, Justin, Eliot & I. We bring you all of our coverage while working full-time jobs.

 Thank you so much for supporting the work we do for the kids of our home state.

 As we have for all of our prior first round games we give you the chances of an upset in the first round and a breakdown of each & every game..

Division I

First Round Byes

1. Portsmouth
2. Exeter
3. Bedford

 

(9) Spaulding at (8) Winnacunnet

Spaulding Team Page

Winnacunnet Team Page

 I love walking around Foley gymnasium in Plymouth and Lundholm on the campus of UNH talking to friends of ours, followers of the website about all different topics around NH high school basketball. As you can guess the Plymouth conversations usually revolve around the lower divisions and at UNH the higher divisions but Monday night, when Division I came up it was always the same question.

 “ What is going on with Winnacunnet?”

 What is going on with Winnacunnet…?

 The Warriors did not look ‘fully engaged’ against Manchester Central, and I spoke to four or five different people who all used that term. Dave Keefe’s Central team walked in ready for a fight and Winnacunnet didn’t fight back. Central’s defense was incredibly aggressive and when they forced Jack Schaake to go out to the perimeter to guard Kyler Bosse the Little Green put the game away with a quick burst. Sending Winnacunnet from a possible first-round bye two weeks ago to the 8 seed.

 Now…

 The 8/9 seed was a death knell a year ago with that 22-0 Portsmouth team. It’s a very tough spot in 2018, no doubt, but it’s not as ominous as it was a year ago.

 Jay McKenna has done another great job with this team, they’re not as loaded as they were a year ago when they were, maybe the second-best team in the state (Bedford would argue they weren’t). Right about now it seems from the outside like he’s playing psychologist as well.

 It’s as simple as this…if the team that beat Memorial and Exeter shows up Winnacunnet can beat anyone in Division I, including Portsmouth. If the team that lost to Central and Nashua South shows up Spaulding will hand them their lunch tonight.

 As I wrote last week Tim Cronin has done another terrific coaching job. These teams know each other well and have already met twice this season (once in the holiday tournament) with Winnacunnet winning both.

 None of that will matter tonight. Arie Breakfield needs a 20-plus point night and Dante McKenny needs to hit jumpers to pull Winnacunnet away from the paint.

 Keagan Calero gets the defensive assignment on Waterhouse, and he matches up well. The mismatch is Jack Schaake, as Spaulding does not have that rugged big that can bang with him in the post.

Upset forecast: There’s no upset here…..neither team is that much ahead of the other…can Winnacunnet pull it together before it is too late?

 

(13) Nashua South at (5) Manchester Memorial

Nashua South Team Page

Manchester Memorial Team Page

 It’s all about match-ups in Division I and for Nate Mazerolle’s team, this is a tough one.

 Danny Bryson’s team beat South 86-54 (Box Score) as Jake Santiago had a big night for the Crusaders. In that game the Purple Panthers tried to get out and run with Memorial…don’t expect that to happen again.

 Richie Mercado has been really good for South, expect Michael Roumraj and Santiago to each get turns guarding him. Tony Agor gives them a guard who can handle pressure and a defender who can get out on Tyson Thomas and pressure the ball. With Memorial, you have a better chance of beating them if you slow them down, and teams this year have, at times, controlled pace against them.

Upset forecast: Very low………Memorial looks like a team in this for the long haul.

(12) Salem at (5) Manchester Central

Salem Team Page

Manchester Central Team Page

 We’re being reminded again just how good of a coach Dave Keefe is, and right now they are the team in Division I you hoped to avoid in the first round.

 Central is defending at an elite level, they have mixed in some match-up zones throughout the season but they are basically doing all of this with straight in-your-shirt man to man defense. Antoine Revere and Yansel Reyes are setting the tone out front and even a team with very little size is able to hold teams to one contested shot.

 Salem will run a lot of offense and be patient with it. I think Rob McLaughlin’s team has the speed to get out and run with Central but I don’t think they will. Zack Carabello and Trevor DeMinico need to win their one on one match-ups in order for the Blue Devils to move on.

 On the other end Salem needs to plug the lane and make Kyler Bosse beat you from the outside. Central played with an intensity against Winnacunnet that overwhelmed the Warriors.

 They continue to play at the level and they can be back at UNH after a one-year absence.

Upset forecast: I like Salem a lot but not this match-up………

 

(10) Merrimack at (7) Alvirne

Merrimack Team Page

Alvirne Team Page

 There are a lot of smart basketball minds that think Tim Goodridge’s team is going to upset Alvirne tonight, so let’s cut to the chase and explain why.

 First of all, Merrimack controlled the pace of the first match-up (Box Score) and nearly won the game. The second time around they are going to pack the paint and not let the Broncos create off the drive. Goodridge will make sure someone other than Max Bonney-Liles beats them (easier said than done) and he will try to make Alvirne beat his team twice in the high-30’s low -40’s.

 That means Connor Lambert, Ryan Weston, Joe Canelas and/or Paul Manzi are going to have to step up. Merrimack wants to close out on each shooter and use Jared Dyer in the paint to limit the Broncos to one shot per possession.

 Alvirne can tend to live and die by the three, they win because they do shoot the ball so well and they’re a very unselfish & well-coached team by Marty Edwards. They are comfortable running the wings and getting the game into the 60’s and 70;’s.

 If you’re Alvirne, don’t you feel like one 10-0 burst would win you the game? It might take Merrimack 6 minutes to score 10 points, Alvirne can do it in 2 minutes. We’ll see…again it all depends on Alvirne making Merrimack chase them around the perimeter.

 They might beat Merrimack tonight but if they do not control pace they’re going to have win by rebounding and making the most of their open looks.

Upset forecast: High………………Tim Goodridge coached teams rarely go quietly in the post-season

 

(11) Dover at (6) Londonderry

Londonderry Team Page

Dover Team Page

 Londonderry finished the regular season as the #6 seed even though they lost their best player to injury.

 Twice.

 Ok, we can argue over whether Jack Anderson was the team’s best player all season long, the sophomore has been terrific, but very few teams would survive losing Ethan Garofalo and then Cole Britting in the same season.

 Britting is the rare player that you can say as a coach ‘ Go guard Max Bonney-Liles………..ok now Cody Graham…………..now Ian Cummings’ and know he is going to get the job done. Nate Stanton doesn’t have his basketball version of a shutdown corner anymore but this team is rebounding together and communicating on the defensive end. Anderson gives them a crunch time scorer and Dakota Bertrand & Ethan May have been very good all year.

 Matt Fennessy’s team blew out Londonderry two weeks ago 81-45 and they’re smart enough to know it won’t matter the second time around. Johnny Cantwell needs to be a factor on the boards and if all the attention in the gym goes to Ty Vitko (who lit the Lancers up for 33 points in the first meeting) then shooters like Devin Cady will make them pay. This is a senior-laden Dover team, they are going to go down fighting whether its tonight or another along the way.

 Dover gave up more points than any other team in the division but they also scored more as well. Stanton is known for his quick in-game adjustments so expect a few different looks defensively, as far as how they will guard the perimeter.

Upset forecast: Both teams think they’re going to win this game…………..I like the home team.