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The Concord Orthopaedics Division III Tournament Preview

By Dave Haley, 02/26/19, 6:15AM EST

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Hunter Macleod and White Mountains face Inter-Lakes for a 3rd time (photo by Corey Mckean)

 Division III has as much depth as any division in the state, so who is the lower seed making their way to Southern New Hampshire University next week?

 Or will the top seeds make all the talk of parity just that, talk?

 Today we’ll preview each of the six first-round games being played tonight.

 Before we do I wanted to share the Heel Point System final standings for Division III.

 If you listened to our radio show on Saturday you know that I was pretty dismayed that Gilford lost the last spot to Fall Mountain because Fall Mountain got extra points for beating 1-15 Division II Stevens while Gilford played every single one of the Top 13 seeds and beat St Thomas, Berlin, Inter-Lakes, Belmont and White Mountains.

 I’m going to do a deep dive on the Heel System and why it is needed next season in the year end columns but to sum it up quickly, the system rewards you for the quality of your opponent, not necessarily what division they are in. For example, the two wins over Stevens hurt Fall Mountain in the Heel and in our current point system those games counted more than if Fall Mountain had swept Conant.

 Which makes absolutely no sense..

 Here are your Heel Standings along with where the system has them (up, down or the same) as opposed to the final NHIAA standings

 

 1. Conant                  (and 30 points clear of everybody else)

 2. Campbell              (up 2 spots)

 3. Somersworth         (down 2)

 4. St Thomas             (down 1)

 5. White Mountains   (up 2 because the D4 teams they beat were good)

 6. Mascenic Regional (down 1)

 7. Hopkinton              (down 1)

 8. Berlin                     (same)

 9. Gilford                  (Not even in the Top 14……………………yep……….)

10.Winnisquam          (up 2)

11. Belmont               (same)

12. Monadnock         (down 3)

13. Inter-Lakes          (down 3)

14. Mascoma             (down 1)

 Fall Mountain was 15th……..and is in over Gilford who would be the 9 seed playing Berlin…who they beat earlier in the season.

 Like I said we’ll deep dive on this when we get to the year-end Thoughts columns (Part I & II) but it is something that needs to be looked into. I even have someone willing to update the standings every week next season.

 We will be out at two games tonight:

 Jennifer Chick-Ruth & I will be at Hopkinton tonight when the Hawks host the Belmont Red Raiders

 Pete Tarrier & Austin Grass will be at Mascenic Regional when the Vikings host the Winnisquam Bears.

 

 Today’s column is sponsored by our friends and partners at Concord Orthopaedics

 Concord Orthopaedics, with locations in Concord, Derry, New London & Windham, has been serving New Hampshire and beyond in specialized orthopaedic and arthritis care.

 Concord Orthopaedics is the sponsor of the coverage of Concord area high schools Bow, John Stark, Concord, Bishop Brady, Pembroke Academy, Kearsarge, and Merrimack Valley.

 

 

Byes: 1) Somersworth and 2) Conant

 

9) Monadnock at 8) Berlin

 Berlin Team Page

 Monadnock Team Page

 This should be a game that goes down to the wire. Both teams have quality wins on their resume and a recent history of making runs in the tournament.

 Berlin has been led all season by all-state forward Seth Balderrama (the Division III scoring champ at 21.5 ppg.) and Sinciere Davis (11.6). Davis is a slasher who rebounds well for a guard and can be disruptive on defense. Balderrama may be the best pure scorer in the division. He can stroke it from outside but has a good spin move in the paint and finishes well attacking from the baseline.

 Berlin is not deep, at all, but getting Michael Moore back from injury gives them enough to get to the quarterfinals. Jalen Lacasse has played better as the season has gone on and his ability to knockdown 3-pointers will spread the Monadnock defense out.

 The Huskies have at times looked a year away and at others ready to make another run to the final four as they did a year ago. Sophomores Quinn Grover (13.6) & Jake Kidney started on that semifinal team and now must lead the way if Jim Hill’s team is going to make another run.

 6’4 power forward Tim Santaw could be a problem for Berlin. His ability to rebound on the offensive glass will have to be dealt with, as Berlin doesn’t have a lot of size down low.

 Monadnock, on the other hand, will have to know where Balderrama is at all times and in addition, they’re going to have to be able to go on the road and win in a very tough gym after being on a bus for 3 and a half hours (that’s no exaggeration).

 That alone might be the biggest obstacle Jim Hill’s team will have to get through tonight, and by the way, no matter when you read this…they’re probably on the bus right now.

 

 Chances of an upset: Neither team winning is an upset….this will be a good one.

 

 13) Mascoma at 4) Campbell

 Campbell Team Page

 Mascoma Team Page

 These teams just played on Friday night but I’m not putting a ton of stock in the result and neither should you.

 Campbell is the most talented team in the division and there is very good chemistry out on the floor with this group but not having power forward Carter Vedrani available would leave them vulnerable. Vedrani rolled his ankle in the second half of the Somersworth game last Wednesday and has not played since.

 Vedrani is the most difficult player on the team for opponents to match up with because of his size, strength & athletic ability. Jonah Crema & Joaquin Heller are terrific in getting Frank Girginis’s team up & down the floor and Brendan Rice might be their best passer. Campbell is deep and they play at a pace most teams are not comfortable at.

 Mascoma will play at that same tempo and has three scorers of their own in Dakota Decocq (12.0), Connor Thompson (12.2) and Ben Seiler (14.5). They like to speed teams up but with Campbell, they’ll already be there.

 Does that mitigate Jim Barry’s pressure defense or does Mascoma stay in this game because they are comfortable at the pace the Cougars set? Vedrani is the mismatch nightmare for the Royals if he doesn’t play that opens up the lane for Decocq and his young backcourt.

 

 Chances of an upset: I like Mascoma…..but not the match-up…..Campbell will be tough to beat.

 

 12) Winnisquam at 5) Mascenic Regional

 Mascenic Regional Team Page

 Winnisquam Team Page

 This is a fun match-up. If Mascenic lets Winnisquam play a wide open game against them there is a good chance of an upset. Kyle Mann (17.2) can slash his way to the basket and sophomore Phil Nichols (14.5) is showing glimpses of what will be his all-state breakout season next year.

 Kevin Dame’s Bears have athletes and they match-up well with a very good Mascenic team looking to break a long Final Four drought. If Mann and Nichols get going and Winnisquam plays at a fast pace where they are scoring and falling back into their trapping defense then this could be your upset special.

 I just don’t think Mascenic head coach John Langlois is going to allow that to happen.

 Mascenic likely will try to win this game in the half-court, using all-state point guard Sammy Stauffeneker (21.2) to create, Trey Shaw (11.2) as their perimeter threat that extends the Winnisquam defense and TJ Hiott, Gabe Turner and Zach Barthel flashing to the paint and roaming the baseline.

 Stauffeneker can handle the Bears traps, can he find Trey Shaw up the sideline for wide open 3-point looks?

 The key to this one is Mascenic dictating what pace the game is played at, and from years of watching John Langlois coach, I can tell you he is more than satisfied with winning 44-40 if it gets him to the next round.

 Chances of an upset: We wouldn’t be going if it wasn’t a good possibility but I think Mascenic will be ready for Winnisquam.

 

10) Inter-Lakes at 7) White Mountains Regional

 White Mountains Team Page

 Inter-Lakes Team Page

 This game turned at the same moment Eli Swanson (20.7) went down with an ankle sprain in the first quarter against Somersworth on Friday night.

 Swanson has been living with a bucket of ice attached to his foot ever since and may give it a go tonight. Even if he does he will only be at about 70% and against a good White Mountains team on the road, that’s a lot to ask.

 Mike Curtis’s team has had an up & down regular season but they are built for the post-season. Jack Curtis and Buddy Lachance (10.9) are two very good guards who can each go for 20 points, Griffin Crane (10.3) is the best athlete on the floor on a lot of nights and 6’4 Zeke Pribbenow (19.4) is a first or second team, all-state performer.

 Connor Bosse gives them a good defender in the backcourt and Hunter MacLeod at 6’4 brings another good rebounder into the rotation.

 The key for the Spartans is Jack Curtis. When he is aggressive offensively this is a different team, a better team. The Spartans know what they are getting from Pribbenow & Lachance every night, they have been consistent all year, but Curtis has shown flashes of what he is capable of. If he becomes a 15 ppg. scorer in the tournament White Mountains can get to the Final Four for the first time since 2012.

 Mike Rathgeber’s Lakers split the season series with White Mountains and have the ability to go up north and win. Tae Miller is a very good on the ball defender but I think you’ll see Inter-Lakes go zone. The offense has players like Eli Dupigny and Eddie Bird who are capable of stepping up on the big stage but without Swanson to run the offense everyone’s jobs get a lot tougher.

 

 Chances of an upset: Low because of the presence of a big yellow ice bucket..

 

 14) Fall Mountain at 3) St Thomas

 St Thomas Team Page

 Fall Mountain has won four games since January 1st, beating Springfield (3-14 in Vermont according to MaxPreps), Stevens (1-15),  Bellows Falls (6-8 in Vermont) and Raymond (1-17).

 They have lost 5 of their last 6 games including a 64-46 loss to Newport (2-16) eleven days ago.

 Gilford beat St Thomas, Berlin, Belmont, Inter-Lakes, closed with a road win at White Mountains and lost to Mascenic by one point in overtime.

 So………….yeah we need to talk about the Heel System after the season.

 

 Chances of an upset: None

 

 11) Belmont at 6) Hopkinton

 Belmont Team Page

 These two teams haven’t seen each other since the pre-season and square off for the right to get back to the quarterfinals for a second straight season.

 Hopkinton sprinted out of the gates and was the surprise team in Division III after wins over St Thomas and Conant were part of a 7-0 start.

 Things have cooled off considerably since then, with the Hawks at one point losing 6 of 7 games. A 52-43 win at Gilford began a 4-0 stretch to end the season but those last 3 wins came against teams with a combined 9 wins.

 Hopkinton features one of the best frontcourts in the division in Kevin Newton-Delgado and Caleb Yianakopolos along with sharp shooter Michael Baer.

 Belmont has been to the quarterfinals two consecutive years under head coach Jim Cilley and has a team capable of a third trip. Point guard Griffin Embree has done a really good job running the offense while guard Nate Sottack has been a lockdown defender at times during his sophomore season.

 Aidan Rupp (12.0) is going to be a key. Belmont can’t win without his production (Rupp is one of the better offensive rebounders in the division) and so he is going to have to navigate around Delgado in the paint. If the Red Raiders can get rebounding from Rupp and center Matt Thurber they are going to be in this one until the end.

 Belmont will be without sophomore guard Jackson Roulke, who has been a spark plug off the bench all season for Cilley, because of an ankle injury but will force the Hawks defense to extend out to the three-point line with the shooting of Keith Landry.

 

 Chances of an upset: If a higher seed goes down, this is your most likely location for it.

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